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2004 Lancet Report (29 Oct 2004)

In 2004, UK medical journal The Lancet published an article entitles 'Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq'. Whereas previous studies of mortality in Iraq had relied on press reports or indirect data, this relied on its own survey and statistical analysis. The conclusions included this statement:

"Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100 000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths."

• 'Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq' (main report published in the Lancet) (29 Oct 2004)

  Published in UK medical journal The Lancet.

  "Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100 000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths."

  Authors are Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi, and Gilbert Burnham of the Center for International Emergency, Disaster, and Refugee Studies (CIEDRS) at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

  Also available from the Lancet website.

• Iraq Analysis Group Briefings

  Briefings by Mike Lewis of IAG on the UK Government's response to the Lancet Iraq Mortality Survey. The responses are found lacking in a number of respects; in particular, they seem to suggest that the Government does not consider "interpolation" from a sample a valid technique. If meant in earnest, it implies a rejection of all statistical analysis.

• 'Lancet roundup and literature review' (11 Nov 2004)

  Blog post by Daniel Davies of www.crookedtimber.org.

• Media Lens: '100,000 Iraq Civilian Deaths' (07 Nov 2004)

  Analysis of the UK mainstream media coverage of the Lancet report.

• 'The Economist' article: Counting the casualties (04 Nov 2004)

  Analysis of the statistical basis of the Lancet report (requires subscription).

• Chris Lightfoot weblog (02 Nov 2004)

  Commentary and discussion.

• Press Release (28 Oct 2004)

  From the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

• CASI-Analysis email list

  Discussion and analysis.

• Comment by Lancet editor

  The report was published in the Lancet along with a comment by the editor, Richard Horton.

• Medact supports claim of 100,000 civilian deaths in Iraq