Mortality Estimates

Information about mortality and excess death estimates in post-invasion Iraq.

A separate section of the site is now dedicated to estimates of mortality in post-war Iraq.

  • Violence-Related Mortality in Iraq from 2002 to 2006 (09 Jan 2008)

    This report estimates that there were 151,000 violent deaths in Iraq between March 2003 and June 2006. This is based on a survey of 9345 households (substantially more than were surveyed in the Lancet studies), conducted by Iraqi government ministries and the WHO in 2006-7. The 95% uncertainty range is 104,000 to 223,000 deaths.

  • Iraq Weekly Status Report

    A valuable, if slanted, compilation of quantitative data, produced weekly by the US State Department. Grouped into the categories of security, democratisation, service provision, economy, law, international engagement, and strategic communications.

  • 2006 Lancet Report (11 Oct 2006)

    The war in Iraq has led to some 655,000 excess deaths, according to a survey of 1849 households, organised by researchers from John Hopkins University. 600,000 of these deaths were caused by violence. Mortality rates have steadily increased since 2003.

  • "How Many Iraqis Have Died Since the US Invasion in 2003?" (09 Jan 2006)

    Article by Andrew Cockburn in Counterpunch.

    "President Bush's off-hand summation last month of the number of Iraqis who have so far died as a result of our invasion and occupation as "30,000, more or less" was quite certainly an under-estimate. The true number is probably hitting around 180,000 by now, with a possibility, as we shall see, that it has reached as high as half a million."

    "...Sprey calculates that deaths inflicted to date as a direct result of the Anglo-American invasion and occupation of Iraq could be, at best estimate, 183,000, with an upper 95 per cent confidence boundary of 511,000."

  • Call for an investigation into Iraqi war-related casualties (11 March 2005)

    Statement calling for an investigation into Iraqi war-related casualties, signed by 24 public health experts in the UK, US, Australia, Canada, Spain and Italy

  • Iraq coalition casualty count

    Detailed and easily-accessible data on non-Iraqi casualties in Iraq. Also includes some (incomplete) information on deaths among Iraqi security forces

  • 2004 Lancet Report (29 Oct 2004) (29 Oct 2004)

    In 2004, UK medical journal The Lancet published an article entitles 'Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq'. Whereas previous studies of mortality in Iraq had relied on press reports or indirect data, this relied on its own survey and statistical analysis. The conclusions included this statement:

    "Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100 000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths."

  • Counting the Cost

    US project to publicise the human cost of the war.

    • Iraq Body Count

      Database of media-reported civilian deaths in Iraq resulting directly from the invasion of Iraq by the US and its allies.

      • Iraq Mortality

        Website providing information on mortality in Iraq, and campaigning for greater recognition of the human cost of the war.

        • Analysis of mortality studies (14 Oct 2005)

          Activist Milan Rai summarises three major sources of information on mortality in Iraq: Iraq Body Count, the 2004 John Hopkins study published in the Lancet, and the UNDP Report, based on the Iraqi Living Conditions Survey.