Opinion Research Business

British polling organization. Their polling in Iraq is carried out by IIACSS.

  • Security in Basra (ORB poll) (Dec 2007)

    Poll of 922 adults in Basra in early December 2007, shortly before the planned transfer of security responsibility to Iraqis. This found that:

    • 78% will feel safer once the British have left
    • 53% feel there will be less violence after the departure, with 38% unsure
    • Iran is seen as a continuing influence, and threat to security
    • 68% have an unfavourable view of the people of the UK

    See also: More detailed data, and media coverage from AFP, and the Independent

  • Economy of Iraq (ORB poll) (Aug 2007)

    7,577 Iraqis, throughout the country, were asked about their economic situation, and their views of the Iraqi economy. The opinions were very divided: although more Iraqis believe the economy is deteriorating, a substantial minority believe it is improving, and many are unsure. The most pessimistic include Sunnis and residents of Baghdad.

    More details: tables and charts

  • Violence in Iraq (ORB poll) (Apr 2007)

    This poll finds skepticism about the 'surge' policy: only 16% believed it would improve security in Baghdad, while 69% believed it would make it worse. However, only 21% would describe conditions in Iraq as 'civil war'.

    Views of the government are divided, as regards effectiveness (43% call it very/somewhat ineffective, 46% very/somewhat effective) and corruption (35% believe it is effective in reducing corruption, 49% that it is ineffective or encouraging corruption).

    51% believe things are better than under the previous regime, against 23% who think they are now worse.

    More details are available from the ORB website

  • Opinion Poll by Opinion Business Research (18 March 2007)

    Opinion poll of 5019 adults in every governorate of Iraq conducted from 10-22 February 2007. Covered mainly political and security questions, as well as migration.

    • One in four (26%) Iraqi adults have had a family relative murdered in the last three years, while 23% of those living in Baghdad have had a family/relative kidnapped in the last three years.

    • Nationally a small majority (53%) felt that the security situation in Iraq will get better in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of the MNF. A quarter (26%) believes the situation will deteriorate with the remainder predicting no change or answering "Don't know."

    • Opinion is divided regionally and along sectarian lines: by a ratio of nearly seven to one the (Shia dominated) South felt that the situation will get "a great deal/little better" (69%) rather than "worse" (10%). In the North opinion is more evenly divided 46% felt it will get better and 37% feel it will get worse

    • Asked about what political system they preferred for the future Iraq, a majority (64%) preferred the current central political system, with majority support amongst all Muslim sectarian groupings (but weak - 15% - support amongst Kurdish respondents)

    • Evidence of some moderate optimism for future security plans: asked whether they believed al-Maliki's plan to disarm all militias would actually do so, 45% believed it would (26% of Sunni respondents, 61% of Shia respondents), 22% that it would not.

    • just under half (49%) believed that things were better under the current political system than under Saddam's rule, but divided strongly along sectarian, ethnic and regional lines (29% of Sunni respondents preferred the current political system, 66% of Shia, 75% of Kurds; 76% of respondents in southern governorates; only 23% in northern governorates; 61% in central governorates)

    Tables showing breakdowns of the results by age, gender, religion, ethnic group, region, education and rural/urban split: http://www.opinion.co.uk/Documents/FINALTables.pdf

  • Views of Nouri al-Maliki (ORB poll) (Sept 2006)

    Only 29% of Iraqis have a favourable view of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, compared to 58% in a June 2006 poll. Support for Maliki is uneven, being far higher in Shia regions than in Kurdish and Sunni areas. More details are available from the ORB website.

  • Measuring opinion in a war zone: what Iraqis really think (Aug 2006)

    This paper was co-written by Johnny Heald and Dr. Munqith Daghir, respectively directors of British pollsters ORB and the Iraqi polling group IIACSS. These organizations have been working together to conduct several polls in Iraq. The paper covers the methodology of polling in Iraq, and presents an analysis of polling results since 2003.

    Powerpoint slides and a summary are also available.